高盛：澳洲房价没有“投机性泡沫”

pinxinge

source: http://www.businessspectator.com.au

Australian house prices not in 'speculative bubble': Goldman Sachs

Published 8:08 PM, 9 Sep 2010 By a staff reporter Australian housing is not in a speculative bubble but could be up to 35 per cent overvalued, Goldman Sachs says in a report, warning that an abrupt and sustained decline in the terms of trade over the next few years could act as a catalyst in deflating house prices across the country. The report says Australian house price dynamics do not appear consistent with a speculative bubble, noting there is a "very big difference between a speculative bubble and a period of overvaluation." Still, Goldman Sachs says house prices are 25 to 35 per cent overvalued, based on a measure of affordability that takes house prices, income, lending criteria and mortgage rates into account. The report warns that Australia's chronic housing shortage will worsen over the next two years as demographic demand outstrips supply, and says Australian policymakers could have less than three years before the terms of trade enters a downward correction phase. "Tighter fiscal policy, higher interest rates and 'jaw boning' may be the only way from preventing households from becoming more exposed to an adverse and sustained shift in the terms of trade," it warns. The report said that residential property investors have been attracted to the housing market by high historical leveraged returns and tax minimisation, and that action in these areas could stem the rise in prices. "With the exception of the Netherlands, Australia has the most tax advantageous arrangements for investing in housing in the developed world," the report said. The report recommends the removal of the goods and services tax (GST) on new home construction and the reduction of stamp duty on new homes as measures that could hep the problem. "Altering the balance between new home demand and existing home demand can be achieved via a more judicious application of taxes," the report said. The report recommends the rezoning of rural and industrial land into residential land, and speeding up the timeframe of housing development to reduce costs.

pinxinge

Just as somebody once said, any report from Goldman Sachs has no credibility but it is interesting.

lisa2008

the point is the property price could be 35 per cent overvalued. no matter the cause is  speculative bubble or not, the risk is obvious.

freshfish

No steal chicken bubble,
but touch dog bubble is on the way

pinxinge

原帖由 freshfish 于 13-9-2010 21:27 发表

                               
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No steal chicken bubble,
but touch dog bubble is on the way

lisa2008

steal chicken bubble

资深贷款经理

thank you for your sharing

chenlocus

Wonderful news!

In 2008, the great Goldman said the price of raw oil would rise to $200, then......

lisa2008