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[摘要]位于墨尔本的Monash大学的报告表示，如果能够消减移民配额，澳大利亚可能会发现要达到气候变化目标更容易。
Monash大学今天发表的研究报告称，由于创纪录的移民数量破坏了温室气体的减排目标，联邦政府陷入了“极度困难”的政策境遇。去年，净移民增加了285,000人，几乎是五年前的三倍。如果保持目前的移民和生育趋势，到2050年，澳大利亚的人口将达到3500万左右。
人口统计学家Bob Birrell和Ernest Healy分析了财政部预测的人口增长在二氧化碳排放中所起的作用。财政部估计，到2020年，全国的碳排放将从2000年的5.33亿吨增加到7.74亿吨。超过80%的碳排放增长都是因为这期间增长的600万人口。
Birrell和Healy博士表示，政府对控制生育率的力量有限，但他们完全可以对限制移民配额方面采取果断的行动。
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24064814-953,00.html
Immigration must be cut to fight climate change
IMMIGRATION must be slashed if Australia has any chance of seriously tackling climate change, says a Monash University study.
The report said Australia's high population growth would be a major driver of greenhouse emissions, and would counter tough government measures to reduce carbon output, The Herald Sun reports.
Your say: Should we cut immigration?
But the Rudd Government and its climate adviser Ross Garnaut were ignoring the population issue at their peril, said the study, entitled Labor's Greenhouse Aspirations, by Monash's Centre for Population and Urban Research.
The nation's migrant intake is at record levels, with the Government recently announcing an increase of 37,500 places for 2008-09.
Given current migration and fertility rates, the population will increase by at least 10 million to 31.6 million by 2050.
Monash researchers Bob Birrell and Ernest Healy used computer modelling to predict the effect of population and economic growth on greenhouse emissions.
If no carbon trading scheme is introduced, Australian emissions will reach 797 million tonnes - or four times Labor's target - by 2050, the researchers found.
In-depth: All the latest on climate change
Emissions would only fall to 502 million tonnes if the nation managed to cut carbon intensity levels by one per cent a year under a tough cap and trade scheme.
"The problem with radical decarbonisation proposals is the limited political feasibility of these measures," the authors said.
"It is hard to understand why the population driver has been ignored in the recent debate, including the work of the Garnaut climate change review."
The authors said that net migration would contribute to most of the 50 per cent increase in Australia's population over the next 40 years.
"Like all Australians they'll be living at twice the standard of living of current residents if the Government's predictions for per capita economic growth are correct," they said.
"Clearly, it's not possible to achieve the Government's target of 60 per cent reduction in emissions at the same time we add an extra 10 million people living at twice the current income level."
The authors called for immigration to be slashed, and the population stabilised at about 22 million by 2050.
Prof Garnaut has predicted the population will reach 47 million by 2100.
The Monash report, which appeares in the latest issue of university journal People and Place, will be released today.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking- ... -20100120-mlii.html
Immigration to 'block' climate efforts
January 20, 2010 - 6:44PM
AAP
A high level of immigration means Australia won't be able to cut its greenhouse gas emissions, an academic paper claims.
The population is forecast to rise by 6 million people to 25 million between 2000 and 2020.
Over that time the federal government wants to cut emissions by 5 to 25 per cent.
But the extra people means more emissions, according to the paper issued this week by Monash University's Centre for Population and Urban Research.
The population growth, most of which would come from migration, meant more people to be housed and employed, and bigger cities.
"Rapid population growth ... makes the attainment of even the most modest reductions to overall greenhouse emissions in Australia very difficult to achieve," said the paper, authored by Bob Birrell and Ernest Healy.
There was little prospect that Australia could cut emissions by the minimum five per cent, let alone anything more ambitious, the report said.
But there was a "relatively painless" solution - stabilising the population.
The paper's authors calculated that if the government did not take steps to reduce emissions, emissions would grow by 40 per cent by 2020, and 83 per cent of that increase would come from the extra people.
The government wants more people because it means more young taxpayers as the rest of the population ages.
Treasury projects the population will rise to 33 million by 2050.
Meanwhile, the Australian Greens have called on the government to take the lead in the next stage of world negotiations on climate change.
Under the deal reached at the troubled Copenhagen climate summit in December, countries are supposed to announce their targets to reduce emissions by the end of this month.
Australia previously planned to reduce emissions by 5 to 25 per cent but could refine this target in light of the lack of progress at Copenhagen.
The government has kept mum on what its new target will be, preferring to wait to see what other countries are doing.
Greens leader Bob Brown said Australia should announce a 25 to 40 per cent reduction by 2020.
"We should be leading, we should have that target up there and announced," Senator Brown told reporters in Canberra.
"But instead of that the Rudd government appears to want to wait and see what Togo, and Somalia, and Nepal and Timor are going to do before they act."
[ 本帖最后由 TtiGeR 于 21-1-2010 09:25 编辑 ] |
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发表于 21-1-2010 08:21:49
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被驴踢的蛮严重的，还不止一头。。。。。。。
